Tuesday, February 16, 2016

U.S. Metropolitan ECONOMIC OUTLOOK from CCIM Quarterly Market Trends (Q4 2015)


The leading market index uses an array of factors to assess the relative health of an individual market. The factors include job creation, unemployment claims, bankruptcy filings, and permits for construction. The first two factors provide an indication of potential business expansion/contraction as well as of labor market health and a leading indicator of multifamily rental growth. Bankruptcy filings allude to the health of the business environment, while the permits data point to business plans and have an indirect impact on inventories.

The leading indicator is weighted based on both the current measure as well as its recent trend or lagged measures. These weighted measures are then added to create a score. This score is then ranked relative to a fixed scale where a measure of 85 or better indicates a robust market, 75 to 85 a strong market, 65 to 75 an average market, and a score below 65 coincides with a weak market. 



(Click on above picture to enlarge)

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